Madison-Rafah Journal

w w w . h a a r e t z . c o m
Zalman Shapira, 29 Mar 2007

At the Madrid Conference in January, senior government officials from the Arab world got up one after the other and expressed their amazement: What has happened to Israel? For the first time in the history of the conflict, not only Egypt and Jordan but the entire Arab League is proposing peace, but Israel is turning its back.

Has something changed in the Arab world? Have the Arabs really changed? Nobody has a precise answer. In effect, we can reasonably assume that to the Arabs we are still a foreign implant in the region. It is not the Arabs who have changed, but the circumstances.

A new enemy is confronting the Arab elite, even more frightening and dangerous than Israel. Radical Islam threatens not only the public survival of the elite, but its physical survival as well. Ostensibly the military-civil establishment is still in control, with the support of the intellectual elite, but the masses are already captivated by radical Islam.

All the external signs warn that the Middle East is facing a tremendous geopolitical change. The seed of the disaster of radical Islam has already been planted in its womb. The fetus is gradually developing. Nobody knows the date of birth, since the laws of nature do not apply to the Middle East, but when it takes place, it will bring about a fundamental change.

Every society needs an ethos to survive properly. With the help of the ethos the elite maintains its control over society. The nationalist ethos was short-lived, almost a passing episode in the history of the Arab world, and it is gradually disappearing. The ethos of Islam is coming back into power. When the ethos changes, so do the elites. At the end of the era of Mubarak, Assad and the other secular rulers, the victory of Islam will be unavoidable, either through elections or through a popular Iran-style revolution.

That is the reason for the Arab elite's desperate cry for peace. It is also the reason for the Saudi initiative and for the willingness of the Arab League for a normalization with Israel. The Arab elite is convinced - that was my impression from discussions in Madrid - that Israel Defense Forces activities in the territories are causing unrest among the masses. Arab satellite television, which broadcasts from every corner of the territories, is bringing the victims of the intifada into every home in the Arab world. This unrest is fertile ground for the growth of radical Islam.

According to the Arab elite, Iran is exploiting this unrest to extend its influence in the region. Only an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the Middle East is likely to stop the progress of this Shi'ite country and prevent it from becoming a regional superpower.

The power of the State of Israel in the Middle East is limited. It cannot stop the domination of Islam, but it must prepare for its advent. Israel's national interest requires determining the borders of the country and getting them recognized by the Muslim world before the Islamic storm floods the region. Only legitimate borders will constitute an impenetrable obstacle to radical Islam.

To create legitimate borders Israel needs a partner. In the North the partner is Syria, and negotiations should be conducted only with that country. The obstacle on the way to negotiations with Syria is not the Bush administration, but the weak government of Olmert, which is fighting for political survival. When it comes to the Palestinians the situation is more complex. Israel's only partner, the representative of Palestinian nationalism, Fatah, is out of power. Hamas, which represents radical Islam, is not a partner for setting the final borders due to its refusal to recognize Israel.

The solution is to conduct negotiations with the Arab League, a legitimate and supra-state body. The Arab countries will help to reach diplomatic arrangements and to make peace in the Middle East because the Arab elite believes an end to the conflict will contribute to stopping radical Islam and checking Iranian influence in the region. In all Israel's 59 years there has not been such a favorable diplomatic atmosphere for ending the conflict. This is a final historic opportunity before the Islamic storm sweeps away the last vestiges of moderation in the Middle East.

The writer is a political consultant.